W is for wowsers
If there is ever a sign that business completely ignores economists and financial experts it is now. Reports are growing that the Global Financial Crisis is likely to develop into a double dip recession. There are fears that if governments wind down their stimulus packages, then we will get a second shock wave. Recovery will not be a V but a W, they warn.
Well, if you listened to them you would head for home, hop into bed and hide under the doona. In fact, business is doing the opposite. Business confidence is at a six year high, according to NAB's August survey of business confidence. And the jump in confidence was across all sectors of the economy.
Consumer sentiment is also up and although the jury is out on whether that will flow through to spending, businesses are boosting their inventories in anticipation of a stronger Christmas.
But the disconnect is bigger than that. There is a feeling among the businesses that we are quickly climbing up the V. They will not even countenance a W. Why should they? There are no signs that they can see of a W.
Besides, most forecasters never picked the global financial crisis. So why listen to their wowser predictions that we are heading for a W? If there is one thing that the GFC actually brought home to many entrepreneurs, it is the fact that they are better off trusting their own instincts, information networks and environment.
Smart business owners are focused on one thing - the recovery. The early signs are there and that's good enough. They are already moving: hiring staff, buying IT, moving on acquisitions and launching new products.
The end of this calendar year provided a much needed fillip. And business owners are looking forward to a much better 2010.
So for those businesses still unsure about ramping up operations, be careful.