Property market’s Super Saturday turns sour after another weekend of poor auction results

APM chief economist Andrew Wilson says the results were poor, and suspects more activity is happening once auctions have finished.

"The auction culture has really changed, I believe. We've had less competition, fewer buyers, but I think there is a mindset that the auction is just the entre, and not the main course."

"I'm hearing there are a lot of post auction negotiations. The other thing to note is that we have not seen a massive increase in unsold properties. The selling is happening after the auction, that mentality has changed there."

While Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 56.3%, according to AMP, Melbourne was the most disappointing city of the weekend – AMP reported a clearance rate of just 60.5%. According to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, that result was only 55%, with a massive 741 properties put on the market.

While Wilson says the result does show some softness, he also notes that "it's not too bad, considering the number of properties put on the market".

"It isn't that bad, but it definitely does show there is some softness in the market there. This is just simply what happens in the quiet market."

But the results come despite a number of commentators predicting that spring would see a resurgence in home buying. So far, that hasn't occurred, and Wilson says it will only happen when buyers feel confident about the economy.

"The market needs more buyers. That's the whole problem – there just aren't enough buyers."

However, despite the disappointing results, SQM managing director Louis Christopher says he believes the clearance rates may be lower given the number of unreported auctions.

The APM figures show that out of 399 auctions in Sydney, only 216 were reported, while in Melbourne, only 154 out of 825 were reported. Christopher says a discrepancy this large may hide some telling statistics.

"Whenever there is a big bunch of unreports, it indicates the agents have had a very tough day. We don't really know what the figures were."

"I believe they could be a lot lower. Usually the discrepancy is bad, but this weekend was particularly serious given the number of listings."

The APM figures showed both Adelaide and Brisbane recorded rates of 43.5%, and 29.8% respectively.

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written by CliffS, October 24, 2011

I suspect that the weekend auction results is the biggest story in residential real estate for a very lng time - but I can't be sure! Clearly the Saturday evening results are a non-sense given the low level of agent reported results. And yet APM has ceased publishing the actual, adjusted, result. It used to be published a week later in the Sun Herald but that has ceased as of last weekend. Further the monthly actual result has not been updated on Domain since July. If APM, Dr Andrew, or anyone, can point me in the direction of the actual auction clearance rates, not the Saturday preliminary, it would be appreciated.

Or perhaps Dr andrew could tell us tomorrow?

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written by connaust, October 24, 2011

Think anyone with some mathematical ability know that the clearance rates are a sham, always above 50% when if you looked at auctions publicised, results do not appear, i.e. up to 30-40% of advertised auction results have disappeared (assume no bids). Have been looking at two postcodes, i.e. 3015 and 3016, although not representative, clearance rate is more like 15%......

A simple method is to see on real estate.com.aubefore weekend properties listed for auction in specific postcodes, then check to see if they appear in published results, majority do not.....

Shows how important it is for industry, media, banks etc. to keep up appearances, surely
misleading? On the other hand if property sales are occurring outside of auctions then they should be included with the total stock of property for sale which would mean e.g. in Melbourne clearance rates of

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written by connaust, October 24, 2011

CliffS found this http://www.myrp.com.au/showNews.do?id=503 on comments in property section of The Age, more representative, has not listed weekend's results yet.