Polls predict election pain for Labor

Federal Labor’s primary vote is down to 27% – the same level that reduced it to minor-party status at the Queensland election – according to a new Fairfax/Nielsen poll published today.

Despite repeated statements by senior ministers that last month’s Queensland poll held little relation to the federal political sphere, Labor’s primary vote in Queensland is now just 22%. In Western Australia it sits at 25% and in NSW, 26%, according to the Australian Financial Review.

Most commentators believe Labor needs a primary vote in the 40s to hold on to government in the election due next year.

The Federal Coalition’s primary vote sits significantly higher at 47%.

But Coalition leader Tony Abbott remains unpopular with Australian voters, with his disapproval rating at a record high of 56% – up 2 points.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s disapproval rating is at 60%.

Abbott remains ahead of Gillard as preferred prime minister by three percentage points (48% to 45%).

According to the poll, 60% per cent of voters oppose the carbon tax.


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