Is the election a done deal?

The polls are predicting a huge swing to Labor. But the election may not be done and dusted yet.

Yesterday SmartCompany reported that there had been a huge jump in the number of business owners who are going to vote Coalition just in the last three months. The poll found that 60% of the 445 business owners polled are voting for the Coalition.

Three months ago a poll of business owners found 51% were voting for the Coalition. The votes have come from the Labor camp, with only 25% now voting Labor compared to 31% in August.

Another poll, out this morning, also reports that a swing back to the Liberals could be underway.

A telephone Morgan poll of 435 electors conducted yesterday shows a swing (0.8% to the Liberals) in the five Western Australian marginal seats of Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan.

In these five key WA seats, Liberal primary support is 44%, ALP 42.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 1% and independent/others 3%.

After allocating preferences the two-party preferred result is Liberal 50.5%, ALP 49.5% – a swing of 0.8% to the Liberals since the 2004 election.

Pollster Gary Morgan says people are tuning into the election issues now. The lead by Labor is not as strong as other polls are suggesting, he says.

He believes that IR is playing a major role in the swing back to the Liberals. “There has been a lot of attention on what’s wrong with WorkChoices, but many people in the West are on AWAs,” he says. “I believe this election will be much closer than people think.”


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