Rather than trying to predict the future of rate movements, let me give you some real data from HelpMeChoose.com.au – this is based on tens of thousands of people coming through the site each month.
The banks are correct – the number of people seeking fixed loans is rising dramatically! It began literally the day after CBA raised their rates on June 12, and the trend is continuing.
If we look at the inverse of this trend, which is the percentage of people seeking a variable rate, it paints a revealing picture.
This metric peaked in January, at 53%. In June, it fell to the lowest level for the year, sitting at just 28%. So far in July, the trend continues to be downward.
In addition, those with an existing loan are looking to refinance with more urgency than at any time previously in ‘09. And their refinancing activity is focussed on moving to fixed rates.
If we consider that historically people tend to shut the gate after the horse has bolted with respect to fixing rates, the bottom may well now be behind us. However, there is no doubt that the peak is much higher than today’s fixed rates, so fixing now will still avoid the peak interest rates.
Hope this provides some useful info.
Dr Adir Shiffman