Why I’m optimistic about 2012

Right. Here is my pre-Christmas vow, and it has nothing to do with drinking less wine.

I am going to avoid having lunch with anyone before Christmas who trots out a gloomy assessment of next year. Not because I have my head in the sand. It is simply that people are stuck in the same groove. They are using trend lines of the last few years to try and forecast the future. And they are using old news (yes, Europe is yesterday’s news) and they are missing the growth story that will unfold next year.

So just to balance up the overwhelming pessimism out there, here is my list of why I feel optimistic about next year.

One: The European crisis that is produced as evidence that next year will be as bad as this year has reached its conclusion. The two new leaders in Italy and Greece will focus on making money, not on paying out benefits. The tide has turned. Yes, there will be a lot of stories about the resistance and how hopeless it all looks, but the change has begun.

Two: China might be slowing but the pundits are still putting it at holding above 8%. Eight percent! Say what you like about demand for commodities falling but 8% growth rate in China can stop any collapse in commodity pricing.

Three: Did anyone notice some of the good news for once coming out of the US? This week we got our second month of stronger than expected retail sales numbers. September saw a surprisingly robust 1.1% lift and this week retail sales were 0.5%, well above the expected 0.2% rise. And the Americans know the story is shifting from Europe to Asia and that Australia is the strategic outpost.

Fourth: Uranium sales will open up India, which will turn into Australia’s next China. There’s another wave to catch.

Fifth: The difficult shift from an old economy fuelled by oil to one based around renewable energies has begun, with many opportunities emerging.

Sixth: Despite the two or three speed economy, with a lot of pain in some of our industry sectors, Australian fundamentals are sound. Like it or not, the existing government is gaining traction which leads to less uncertainty and Julia Gillard’s popularity will grow next year, especially as she tackles the pay equality debate, encouraging women to shift their support base back to her.

I could go on, but if you go looking you can see the seeds of recovery in the gloom of the news. We are shifting towards a new economy that favours those who can spot the opportunities early.

So if we catch up for coffee or a drink before Christmas you can be as gloomy as you bloody well like. But lunch? That’s saved for optimists looking for opportunity, not pessimists looking to justify their inaction.