I wanted to take another look at Google Trends this week because there are a couple of elections coming up. It’s time to take another test of how good a predictor Google Trends is when it comes to current events and popular votes. You might remember how well it predicted the US Presidential election last November.
It’s a good exercise to let you know how to do keyword research, but I also want to show you some of the added benefits Google Trends has now, especially when narrowing down your search.
The biggest election coming up that I know about is the French Presidential one. They’re saying that the election there is coming down to two players, François Fillon and Marine Le Pen. If we look at what Google Trends is telling us right now, Marine Le Pen is the strong front-runner. If the election were held yesterday or today, Le Pen would definitely win.
However, it all depends on what happens between now and election day. As we’ve seen in the US Presidential elections, the candidate who’s trending highest on election day is the one who’ll win. It’s happened every single time, during the entire history of Google search.
We looked at things outside politics, and settled on reality shows. We checked an Australian show called The Voice, and the numbers didn’t seem to work. But once we searched the highest trending name, we found another incident that skewed the results.
So I’m saying that, all things being equal, Google Trends is an effective and reliable way to predict elections and other popularity contests. Now I just want to see how this applies to other events. If you’re having an event, try Googling current events in the area. It will be interesting to see how we can use this information.
This article was originally published on stewartmedia.com.au
Jim Stewart is a leading expert in search engine optimisation. His business StewArt Media has worked with clients including Mars, M2 and the City of Melbourne.